Wells Fargo Fourth of July Food Report reveals home-cooked burgers three times cheaper than dining out

Dr. Michael Swanson, Chief Agricultural Economist; Courtney Schmidt, Sector Manager; and Robin Wenzel, Group Head, Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute

For many, the Fourth of July is all about the summer heat and backyard grilling, and this year, Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute calculated exactly how much hosts of the classic, backyard get-togethers will save as they build the hamburger of their dreams. With the worst of food inflation in the rearview mirror, consumers will be delighted to learn that the home-cooked burger will cost three times less than a burger purchased away from home. 

The mid-June 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Food at Home rose by 1% compared to mid-June 2023 when this same index was rising at 5.9%. In contrast, the mid-June 2024 CPI for Food Away from Home rose by 4%, as the industry continues to pass along the cost of higher restaurant worker wages to the consumer. The longer this mismatch in inflation for Food at Home versus Food Away from Home continues, the more incentive Americans will have to consider home-cooked food for big savings.

Just how big can the savings be? Wells Fargo looked at the price of the ingredients for a home-cooked, quarter pound hamburger versus the average cost of popular fast-food restaurant quarter pound burgers. The cost savings for home cooking are substantial, especially if you are feeding a hungry group. The current cost of ingredients to prepare a quarter pound hamburger with cheese, tomato, and lettuce at home is $2.16 per burger. Of course, those doing the preparation and cooking are supplying the labor and overhead, but that’s part of the joy of being with friends and family on the Fourth. 

In contrast to the home-grilled burger, a sample of five popular Quick Service Restaurants (QSRs) shows the average price of a quarter pound burger is $6.95. Bottom line, the restaurant labor and overhead make the QSR burger 3.1 times more expensive. For a party of 10, the home chef will save nearly $50 ($47.90 to be exact) on burgers by firing up the grill. One might say, “Build a burger at home, save a fortune.” This is right in line with the USDA’s Food Dollar Series which shows the average amount of the restaurant-provided expense in 2022 to be 70%. In other words, if one spends $100 at a restaurant before taxes and tip, only $30 of that total is actually for the food ingredients.

So, how are other typical food items looking for the Fourth? Let’s start with a favorite side dish and tick through the cookout menu.

Star-spangled potato salad

Potato salad should get a place of honor on the plate, particularly if you are willing to prepare it at home. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports show that white potatoes can be found across the nation for $0.96 per pound. That’s a 4.4% price decrease from this time last year for potatoes. Supermarket prices for potato salad are down 0.7% from a year ago. So, whether you prepare the potato salad at home or go with store-bought, savings are there to be had. 

My country, ‘tis of chips and dips 

The mid-June price for potato chips increased 2.7% since this time last year, a fairly modest increase. Given the total cost of a bag of chips, they are still a good buy for appetizers and a side for burgers. Why not make things fun and explore some of the newest chip flavors that manufacturers are offering. Potato chip bar, anyone? 

As for dips to accompany the chips, it’s a split decision. Salsa prices are up 2.5% from a year ago, but guacamole declined by 1.1%. Looks like tortilla chips and guacamole will also be a smart snack choice for this year’s celebration.

Give me liber-tea (and other beverages)

Another Fourth of July favorite is iced tea. Ready-to-drink bottled iced tea prices have risen 2.4%, which is in line with the beverage category as a whole. Preparing your own iced “liber-tea,” however, will save big money, and it also helps reduce packaging and transportation involved with bottled tea. Beer prices are still rising at a 1.2% rate, and wine posted a 3.4% increase from a year ago. Overall, beer pricing has risen more steadily since COVID-driven food inflation. Soft drinks are seeing a bit of a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde food-inflation moment with 12-ounce cans up 4.8% and 2-liter bottles down 6.5% from a year ago. This discrepancy can be explained by the fact that the price of aluminum for the cans has risen 7% from a year ago. This cost is passed along to the consumer, and will have an impact on one of America’s favorite dessert floats. 

Sweet treats of liberty

Let’s not forget something sweet to finish off the meal. Ice cream prices will be more expensive this year with a 3.3% increase. If you like to build a root beer float for the Fourth, you'll feel a double whammy since root beer prices have jumped 8.8% from a year ago, reflecting the cost of sweeteners and packaging.

In the bakery section, prices continue to climb with cakes up 1.6% from this time a year ago, and cupcakes climbing a strong 5.6%. This reflects the increasing wage rates that bakeries and supermarkets continue to face. So, why not pay yourself by baking at home for the big celebration? Even though cake mixes are up 6.6%, there’s still opportunity to give your wallet some relief by employing your baking skills, since most other ingredients are already in your pantry and refrigerator.

Yankee Doodle went to takeout?

Without question, the greatest savings this year will be realized by those who build burgers and fixings at home. That said, there is hope for the consumer who needs to capitalize on convenience, since a number of the most popular fast-food restaurants are rolling out “value deals” as restaurants fight for consumer dollars. So, while the home-grilled burger may be the better route for your group gathering on the Fourth of July, it appears that consumers will still be able to grab that “burger to go” without emptying their wallet when there is just no time for cooking and cleaning. Either way, the day will surely be delicious for those celebrating the birth of our nation.

Michael Swanson, Ph.D. is the Chief Agricultural Economist within Wells Fargo's Agri-Food Institute. His is responsible for analyzing the impact of energy on agriculture and strategic analysis for key agricultural commodities and livestock sectors. His focus includes the systems analysis of consumer food demand and its linkage to agribusiness. Additionally, he helps develop credit and risk strategies for Wells Fargo’s customers, and performs macroeconomic and international analysis on agricultural production and agribusiness.

Michael joined Wells Fargo in 2000 as a senior economist. Prior, he worked for Land O’ Lakes and supervised a portion of the supply chain for dairy products, including scheduling the production, warehousing, and distribution of more than 400 million pounds of cheese annually, and also supervised sales forecasting. Before Land O’Lakes, Michael worked for Cargill’s Colombian subsidiary, Cargill Cafetera de Manizales S.A., with responsibility for grain imports and value-added sales to feed producers and flour millers. Michael started his career as a transportation analyst with Burlington Northern Railway.

Michael received undergraduate degrees in economics and business administration from the University of St. Thomas, and both his master’s and doctorate degrees in agricultural and applied economics from the University of Minnesota.

Courtney Buerger Schmidt is a Sector Manager within Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute focused on the protein, cotton, and hay sectors. Courtney originally joined Wells Fargo in 2014 as a relationship manager within The Private Bank Wealth Management group where she spent two years prior to assuming her current role. Before Wells Fargo, Courtney spent six years as a commodity broker and research analyst with Frontier Risk Management developing hedge and risk management strategies for Agribusiness clients, and also served as assistant director of the research division that focused on livestock, grain, and oilseed.

Courtney holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics with an emphasis in finance and real estate from Texas A&M University. Courtney was recently selected for Texas Agriculture Lifetime Leadership (TALL) Cohort XVIII 2022-2024. She is also a member of the Texas A&M College of Agriculture Development Council .

Robin Wenzel is a senior vice president and the head of Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute, a team of national industry advisors providing economic insights, analytics, research, and reporting across the agribusiness, food, and beverage spectrum. With more than 30 years of commercial and corporate banking experience, Robin leads with a strategic vision and an ability to expand and execute on the team’s deliverables to better support Food, Beverage, and Ag customers and prospects. 

Robin received her degree in Business from the University of San Francisco with an interest in Finance and International studies. 

Robin has long been recognized for her work as a leading voice in the wine industry in Napa, CA. She is also a recipient of the 2017 North Bay Business Journal Women in Business Award.