Barlow Q4 Business Sentiment Report

I am pleased to announce the release of Wells Fargo’s Q4 2024 Commercial Business Sentiment Report, in collaboration with Barlow Research Associates. Between November 16 – November 22, we surveyed more than 300 CEOs and CFOs nationwide, at companies with an annual revenue ranging from $10 million to $500 million, about the state of their businesses, the economy, growth opportunities, and areas of concern. Survey data reported the highest positive commercial sentiment index score, 112.9, in the past four years (up from 102.3 in Q3).

With election outcome uncertainty no longer a factor, companies report increased optimism about the state of their business, demand for their products/services, and their expectation for overall economic improvement in both the near and long term (51% of companies expect an improved U.S. economy in the next 12 months and 63% expect an improved economy in the next 5 years). Additionally, a growing number of businesses cite increased efficiencies (35%), their growing customer base (29%), interest rate stabilization (27%), and decreased fuel costs (27%) as key factors that have helped advance their companies performance in the past 3-6 months. 

The highly positive commercial sentiment recorded in Q4 was likely driven by the elimination of election unknowns. Few factors stall progress, delay decisions, and cause concern, like unknowns. Providing a known, regardless of preference, allows businesses to move forward. Without the burden of not knowing who will lead the country, business leaders are now able to press play, rather than pause on decision making. The second highest commercial sentiment index score we have recorded was in Q2 of June 2021 (111.7) following the release of the Covid vaccine, another time when businesses saw a clear way forward after a time of uncertainty.

Business observers rely on indicators like the Consumer Prices Index, Jobs Report, and Producer Price Index to measure economic health. Commercial bankers understand, however, that is only part of the story, and a truer picture requires listening to the perspectives of commercial businesses. We are pleased to share these valuable insights with you as you make decisions for your business now and in the future.